Thursday, 3 May 2018

268 and brief Sindelfingen round 1 comments

I think I have talked about being on 268 before, in that you shouldn't start on 20's if you really need to leave yourself some sort of out at all costs, namely because if you miss, you need to hit a treble last dart regardless, even if you switch (a treble 18 from 248 leaves 194), and that you should start on 18's or 19's - with 18's you then just need four marks on 20 to leave a shot if you miss, if you hit you are on 214 and a switch to 19's on the second dart leaves you with a shot at 25/bull. If you start on 19's, you just try to get four marks and get to 192, then a 25/bull leaves a shot either way.

That said, in most analysis, it always seems to be the case that it's a better bet to go for the bull as early as possible if you know you're going to use it as part of the current visit (or, for that matter, the next visit) - so why not go for bull first dart? If you hit bull, you need 48 to leave 170 or 58 to leave 160, there's no obvious tricks here so just pummel the 20's as you would normally do. If you hit 25, you're left with 243 - switch to 19's and get a treble and single to leave 167.

ET5 draw is out. Adie's managed to get the Adie flu which normally spring up just before European Tour events from May onwards, so we've now got five German entrants and all the big names are there, lines are out so let's fire up the new, fully functioning, FRH master computer and look at the lines:

Hudson/Monk - Line is ever so slightly in favour of Monk, model has it more or less exactly the same, it's the tiniest of tiny value so it's really not worth considering.

Razma/Hine - Model loves Razma. It really, really does. Madars is a bit more inconsistent but it doesn't make a difference, 0.25u Razma 4/5

Padgett/van den Bergh - Padgett played the UK Open qualifiers and got no cash and hence the data is severely limited, but from what we have it suggests that there is tiny value on van den Bergh. At 2/13. Let's just wait for a better Dimi spot.

Lennon/van der Voort - Steve's been playing very well so far this season, Vincent's been under the radar, not breaking past the last 32 in any tournament since the worlds. Normal business is for Lennon to win one and then go out, with the model giving him a better than two in one shot this looks decent, 0.25u Lennon 9/10

Clemens/Dekker - Market slightly favours Dekker, model somewhat favours Clemens. While the model just looks at win speed, for which Dekker isn't looking that great given his losing average is actually better than his winning average, Gabriel doesn't have a whole lot of separation either, add on home field advantage and let's go, 0.25u Clemens 11/10

Bunting/Shepherd - Bunting, while playing better of late, seems to be way too short here, being a favourite but nowhere near the price offered. Thinking he's playing better, I messed with the date slider, which, oddly, then favours Shepherd even more, so 0.25u Shepherd 7/2

Gies/Tabern - Nothing on Gies, but a former Dutch Open semi finalist has to be respected to some extent, so no bet, he got through Kist and Lerchbacher at least.

Schindler/Owen - This could be good, bookies have this as close to a flip but I've got Martin as having over a two in three shot, there's no significant consistency issue here and he has home field like Clemens, 0.25u Schindler 9/10

Noppert/Ratajski - Evening session kicks off and this is tasty, market has this really tight but I think this is a Ratajski bet all the way up to 8/11 or so, so we'll take 0.25u Ratajski 11/10

Wattimena/Alcinas - Another good intra-Euro matchup, model is throwing out Alcinas as having an edge, but the market is solidly in favour of Wattimena. Alcinas is a lot more inconsistent and Jermaine has plenty of games where he can come home with 18 dart legs in more or less every leg, but there's easily enough here to punt, 0.25u Alcinas 17/10

Lewis/Bunse - Bunse has played the UK Open qualifiers, so we actually have data. That data suggests a curbstomping. 1u Lewis 2/13

Caven/Michels - I've got nothing on Michels, a name that's been around for years and has played in both worlds, looking at his dartsdatabase I can't suggest a bet on him, Caven's not great but I'd think he should just get home in six visit legs fairly comfortably.

Evans/Anderson - Could be explosive. Kyle's the favourite and listed at nearly 2-1, I have him as a favourite as well but slightly narrower, nothing to write home about so with quite a bit of exposure I'll ignore it.

Wade/Hopp - Could be the match of the night, line looks decent enough, gun to the head I'd go Hopp but if anyone's not going to be affected by playing Hopp in Germany it's probably Wade.

Murschell/Nicholson - Line has Nicho as having a small advantage, I've got it at 55/45, seems like an obvious no bet, Paul may ease through on stage experience but Dawson seems like a hugely confident player so I wouldn't read a great deal into that.

Marijanovic/Boulton - I've only got the UK Open qualifiers on Boulton, but he wasn't too impressive here and Marijanovic has been doing about the same level week in week out, with a projection of close to a flip I think 0.25u Marijanovic 15/8 looks fine.

Word in advance, there'll be nothing in preview of the Sunday, as I'm away for the weekend, pesky Football League and their half twelve kickoffs at the other end of the country, but I should be in early for round 2. Take care people.

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