Saturday, 3 March 2018

UK Open round 5

That didn't go as planned, special thanks to Ron Meulenkamp for missing match darts when 9-7 against Part, changed what would have been more or less a break even afternoon into a three quarters of a unit loss, overall down 0.85 units for the tournament so far. Such is the closeness of how things go, but then again we got out of jail a couple of times in earlier games - Meikle going 5-0 down, letting Mansell have nine visits to win the match where he only gets a dart at the bull (although I guess he had a dart where he bust 136), and then reel off the rest of the legs to win 6-5 is my favourite.

The odds for this evening aren't out yet, but due to the usual lag between the TV stage finishing and the outer boards finishing mean that I've been able to project the matches already, and here's the stats:

Not exactly the most awe-inspiring set of games, with every single match having someone with a better than two in three shot, and five of the games having someone with a better than three in four shot. The guy doing the Elo ratings is almost as lacking in optimism, although he only has Cross at 65% and Huybrechts at 62%, so there is that. I don't know whether his model adapts for greater lengths of match or not.

Will post shortly when odds are released, but with the above you can at least look to punt yourself.

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