Sunday, 4 March 2018

No pyro no Party - UK Open quarter finals

Nice of King to miss eleven darts at double over the space of three legs that Part won, while White played probably his worst game of the season so far when it mattered. If you're going to let the opponent break you, at least force him to throw a fifteen darter - Owen twice won legs in six visits on the White throw, could have been a third if White's worst leg in terms of speed (a 21 dart hold) saw Owen not even get to a finish after five visits. Oh well, we go again now:

The draw, unlike the last round, has given us some real interesting games, including throwing the two best players left in the tournament against each other, the next two best players against each other, so if we hit the one in three shot of Cross/Ando drawing Price/Cadby in the semi final someone is getting a real cheap pass through to the final (and, as a result, the Grand Slam).

For our bets we're just going to look at the graphic above, which'll tell you everything you need to know. Pallett's legs in par is a little bit better in this tournament than overall, but nothing spectacular, it's still five points lower than West's overall score, and his points per turn are a remarkably consistent 90 across the board. West has managed a solid 60% clip of legs won in par, including four twelve darters, although his points per turn are a bit down and a bit more inconsistent than in the overall sample, with the overall points per turn being pretty much the same as Pallett's. West seems to have got the whole play mediocre on TV thing behind him, so I'll go for a bet here - 0.5u West 8/11.

Part against Owen is a quarter final nobody would have called before the tournament, the bookies have this quite close, but Owen's figures are superior on every metric, having beaten White and crushed Jamie Lewis, while Part's not beaten a single player in the FRH top 20 to get to this stage. Part's par legs won in this tournament alone are comparable to his overall stats, and his points per turn when losing (and thus overall) are a couple of points better than the full sample. Owen's overall numbers are also very similar to his numbers just for this tournament, the only way I can see him losing is if the occasion gets to him and Part, having done everything before for 25 years, is able to hold his nerve having kept it close. I doubt this happens, Owen's demeanour when I've seen him on the European Tour is one of a confident player and I think he pulls through - 0.5u Owen 4/6.

Price against Cadby won't be a quiet one, the bookies have this as the second closest match while I have this as the closest match, barely able to separate them. Price is the better player overall on par legs, but in this tournament he's been able to get by with much lower figures, finishing less than half in fifteen darts, Cadby's is down a bit as well but only about five points lower. The winning averages overall are similar, while Cadby is more consistent resulting in a small edge in overall points per turn, but in this tournament it's the other way around - Price is actually averaging more when he's losing (over 94) than when he's winning (91 and a bit). There's enough conflicting information in a close match that I can't bet on this one.

The main event will set the clear favourite for the tournament, the bookies have it evens, while the percentage win chance calculated by the secret FRH master computer reckons Cross is a solid favourite. Ando's par legs is a bit better in this event than overall, but not quite up to 70%, while he's been very tight on all points per turn stats, everything when rounding to a whole number being 95. Cross has been more explosive, with five twelve dart legs to Anderson's three, par legs won being less than a point down from the overall sample (so higher than Anderson), while his points per turn are basically the same as the whole sample. The only worry is head to head, with Cross being 0-3 against Anderson, including most recently in the semi final of the qualifier Anderson won. I think that may be enough to not make this a bet, there'll be a bit more added pressure given that this may end up being a virtual final (I'm sure the winner of Price/Cadby at least would have something to say about that) so I'll pass this one and probably regret it.

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