Wednesday, 13 December 2017

World Championship - Round 1 and prelim bets

Still time to post up your fantasy lineups as we hit Dartsmas Eve, you've got a little less than 24 hours to prove (or otherwise) your knowledge of the darting world. The previews are all done, the talking is nearly over, the action is soon to begin, but where shall I be placing my money? In order of play, here's the all important FRH takes on the games:

Beaton/O'Connor - no bet, Beaton's installed as a favourite, but it's not by much and O'Connor very much has a chance in all aspects of the game.
Wilson/Ratajski - no bet, my stats can barely separate them and the line's the closest first round line to evens that there is, way too close to call.
van Gerwen/Kist - no bet, while I could just say a bunch of units on van Gerwen and print, it'd suck for him to tweak a shoulder/ankle etc, and who knows, Kist could suddenly recover and hit some Matchplay level form.
Price/Evetts - 1u Price 5/12, I think this is a big step up for Evetts, even if he is playing a lot better than the set winning lines I posted up earlier, say that Price is 70% to hold and Evetts is 40%, then Price still takes a 2-0 lead nearly half the time and Evetts rarely is able to grab the lead after two sets himself.

Asada/Mathers - no bet, I don't really have enough information on either to be making a judgment.
Bunting/van den Bergh - no bet, it's a similar sort of read to the Beaton match, Bunting should have enough but Dimitri troubles him often enough that there's little value.
Taylor/Dobey - 2u Taylor 1/6, Dobey simply isn't playing well enough to trouble Taylor, and we're being offered a fairly decent price compared to a lot of the big names in the first round.
Cross/prelim winner - no bet, it's 1/33.

Dolan/Ljubic - no bet, would ordinarily fancy a prelim qualifier from Europe at 4/1, but Ljubic dodged the good players in his prelim and Dolan's got more recent form.
van de Pas/West - no bet, line's about 60/40, seems bang on with both players between 50 and 60% to hold a set on their throw with Benito having the better numbers.
King/Lerchbacher - 1.5u King 3/10, Lerchbacher simply isn't in the same league and shouldn't be able to replicate the form he had in that one good event he had for long enough to trouble King.
Thornton/prelim winner - no bet, I think this should be a Thornton bet but it just seems so wrong to do so when he'll probably face a player that has at least regained form recently and won't help his rhythm.

Smith/Humphries - no bet, simply because I have no data on Humphries and he has at least shown on minor tours he can be trusted to be competent.
Cullen/Wattimena - 1u Cullen 2/5, he's progressed to a stage where he should defeat Wattimena more than enough times for this to be correct, Wattimena's a one in eight shot by my stats to hold both his sets on throw, and if he doesn't do that he only breaks the Cullen throw over a set one time in four, seems unlikely.
Klaasen/Dekker - 0.5u Dekker 19/10 - running the set winning percentages through, I've got it as Klaasen winning 3-0/3-1 only 50% more often than Dekker, that needs to be up at twice as often really, Dekker's hit form, Klaasen not so much and Dekker bosses the consistency.
Anderson/prelim winner - no bet, Anderson's just too short against a qualifier who should be competent.

Neyens/Lewis - no bet, I simply lack data on Neyens, Lewis should be better but not wins 75% of the time better.
Norris/Viljanen - 0.25u Viljanen 7/2, that's a big big price on someone who's been here before and has shown a decent game on stage once this year and a consistent level of play domestically all season long. It probably doesn't work that often, but this seems like more of a 25-30% chance than what the market suggests.
Anderson/Jacques - 1u Anderson 2/9, this is a huge, huge step up for Jacques against someone who likes this stage and has won a TV title this year, I can't see him scoring heavily enough to get home anywhere near often enough.
Clayton/prelim winner - no bet, I think there'd be enough uncertainty in a game against Lewis that I don't want to touch it.

Bruguier/Harris - no bet, almost seems like it's worth a nibble on Harris but two sets is no race at all and they're both on debut.
Wade/Brown - 0.25u Brown 7/2, I simply don't rate Wade, and while Brown's 6-0 loss the last time he played is a concern, and he's very inconsistent in comparison to Wade, he's done enough this year that makes me think he can get home at least one time in four.
Chisnall/van der Voort - no bet, the line is fairly close to what my numbers reckon, perhaps favouring Chisnall slightly, but there's enough possibility of Chisnall having one of those days where he misses doubles that I'll avoid it.
White/prelim winner - no bet, this should be comfortable enough for White, but Harris at least seems a competent operator and White may be under a touch of pressure after a middling season.

Leung/Lim - no bet, know fairly little about Kai and Lim's too short really.
Suljovic/Painter - 2u Suljovic 1/5, checked the set numbers against each other and Painter's not got enough game to make it home at the sort of rate he'd need to, he has at best around a 10% shot.
Gurney/Huybrechts - no bet, the figures say Huybrechts at 6's but the figures always seem to underestimate Gurney who has great consistency figures.
Webster/prelim winner - no bet, tempted to fire in on the underdog but avoiding the punt without more knowledge. May add something on in real time dependent on how the prelim looks.

Oreshkin/M√ľnch - no bet, line is evens or there abouts and based on guesses of where they're at I couldn't make a convincing case either way.
Henderson/Kantele - no bet, Henderson should win this one fairly often but he's too short and I think there's enough variables that can go on that make this not worth betting.
van Barneveld/North - 2u van Barneveld 1/6, I just can't see how North brings his A-game to the stage and makes it stick for long enough against someone of Barney's quality.
Lewis/prelim winner - no bet, 1/16 is a bit too short although I can't see any sort of Lewis failure.

Zong/Smith - 1u Smith 1/5, only small as I don't know too much about these players but the Chinese qualifiers have been without exception awful and from what I have seen of the kid this doesn't look like it'll change.
Smith/Lennon - no bet, underdog stab at Lennon seems tempting but you can't even get 5/2, so the market seems to have reacted to him already.
Whitlock/Schindler - no bet, it's about a 75/25 line and I think Schindler can only nick this around 20% of the time so he's not quite there for me.
Pipe/prelim winner - no bet, Pipe's 1/7 which is too short against an unknown, and backing an underdog with limited information against a seasoned pro who's hit some form seems like a mistake even if we only need to hit one time in seven to break even.

Reyes/Alcinas - no bet, Alcinas is a tempting proposition only needing to hit 25% of the time to be right, but I just don't know quite how good his floor form is to know whether if he can translate it to the stage (which he hasn't so far) whether it's enough against Cristo.
Huybrechts/Richardson - 0.25u Richardson 16/5, Huybrechts has slipped up enough times in opening rounds of TV events in the past (remember Pallett) and Richardson's numbers aren't that distant that he can't win this 30% of the time given he has course and distance for big shocks here.
Webster/Petersen - 2u Webster 1/4, Petersen really shouldn't be here and hasn't shown enough this season that he can beat someone who's won a tour event this year 20% of the time.
Wright/Portela - no bet, not touching someone with health issues at 1/20.

That's your lot for the next week, there's a fair few more favourites that I thought I'd bet, but they all seem sensible enough to me.

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