Wednesday, 26 July 2017

Bunch of quick Matchplay postings

Tonight's session ran on for far too long and I'm exhausted, so I'm going to collate a bunch of stuff very quickly.

Chizzy/Norris saw Alan hit three twelve darters, and also win six legs in more than five visits - three of which were breaks, the perfect storm of playing well when it mattered (one twelve was to break to get within a leg of the match, another was on throw to close it) and Chisnall missing doubles. It's what I thought needed to happen, and it did. Lewis/Cross was high quality, Lewis winning every leg he won in under fifteen darts, limiting Cross's chances to break - after Cross broke in four visits to get it back on serve before the second break, there was a five leg spell where every leg was held in five visits - Lewis needing 130-140 if given a shot, Cross on 42 and 36, Lewis holding there was key as Cross pressured great, averaging 99 in losing legs. Taylor/Barney was a bit of a damp squib, Taylor holding in six visits three times, breaking in five visits five times - taking what was offered without really getting out of second gear, a couple better than Barney's neutral, while again he averaged 99 in Taylor's winning legs, this seems a touch misleading as it was due to quite a few missed doubles. van Gerwen/Whitlock was painful to watch, Whitlock getting his three legs in five visits but averaging 86 otherwise, van Gerwen not really being pressured, getting his normal two twelve darters but getting four legs in six visits isn't that clinical.

Updated winning percentages:

van Gerwen 63.14%
Lewis 17.39%
Wright 10.79%
Suljovic 4.53%
Taylor 2.69%
Webster 0.88%
Gurney 0.46%
Norris 0.12%

Now you might look at these and think "how the hell can Suljovic be nine times as likely as Gurney to win given Gurney's form" - well Suljovic is on form as well. I have him as a 71/29 favourite based on all stats. This dates back to September. If I filter on the worlds onwards, where Gurney made the quarters, it's 63/37 - still for Suljovic. If I filter from after when Gurney won his first title, it reverts to 74/26 to Suljovic. If I filter just since May, it's now 78/22 Suljovic. I won't go on filtering even smaller and smaller subsets, but if I filter on just the Matchplay, it's only 54/46 Gurney. I see little reason not to take 0.5u Suljovic 29/20 as Boyles seem oddly bullish on Gurney in comparison to everyone else. Wright I've got at 75/25, I don't think that this is worth a Webster bet even getting 5/1, it's somewhat unknown for him over this distance and Wright looked better in the previous round. If you want to have a micro punt, go ahead, I won't. For the top half, where there's barely odds available, I've got Lewis as a massively prohibitive favourite, he's playing that well that Norris is going to have to step up even more again - the only question is the back, but it didn't seem to bother him today, will probably back Lewis but not quite so strong as if I knew he was 100%. In the main event, I've got van Gerwen as almost as big a favourite as Lewis, at around a 7-1 advantage, so once odds mature I'll probably be taking some action on the Friday night.

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