Thursday, 4 May 2017

Matchplay Qualification Race

Going to try to project the qualifiers. Would say that all of the top 16 seeds as of right now (which is the 1-14 from the adjusted rankings in the previous post plus Smith and Thornton) are safe, either mathematically as a seed or because they easily have enough in the bank from the Pro Tour to qualify if they slip out of the top 16. Will also say that the top 8 on the Pro Tour right now (Norris, Price, Gurney, Cullen, King, Bunting, Reyes and West) are safe as well - there's over a seven grand drop from West to Wilson who's currently ninth, and West is nearly fifteen grand above the current cutoff value. Which leaves eight spots. I've considered everyone who is within 10k of the current cutoff point (excepting Terry Jenkins, as he's seemingly retired, anyone more than a whole Pro Tour win behind already isn't catching up barring miracles) and extrapolated what their winnings should be as follows:

- Taking their current data from Burton's standings (, which include mincashes from the Euro Tour 4/5 if they've made it

- From the Pro Tour (six events remaining), I've taken their average winnings from the Pro Tour so far this year, and averaged it with the average winnings from the UK Open Qualifiers, assuming they paid out the same amounts, weighting it 2:1 in favour of the Pro Tour as it's more recent and a larger sample size.

- From the European Tour (five events remaining), I've looked at how many games on average a player wins once they get in from their last five events, then looked at how often they have qualified and used that as a marker. Work out how many they get in to on average going forwards, then multiply that by how much they win - so if they've won a total of three games in their last five appearances, I'd credit them with £1,600 for each time they make it. For the Euros, this extrapolates across the five remaining events as they haven't had any of the qualifiers for them yet (one is tonight), for the UK based players, I've scored for ET4/5 separately based on how often they win, but only if they've qualified for it, otherwise they obviously get zero, for ET6-8 I've projected the same as the European players.

Two quick notes - for Rob Cross, I've used an average of winning 1.5 games each time he makes a European Tour event - I'm not using a sample size of one event where he won three games, getting through the first round then beating a seed half the time seems like a reasonable adjustment. For Dimitri van den Bergh, as he missed one of the Euro qualifiers (not sure why as it was on the same night as another one he did play in - would guess the main event clashed with a Development Tour weekend or something), I've said that one he didn't take part in would be a loss, so he's qualified for 2/3. He might easily prioritise other events again and not take part in all of them, plus saying he'll definitely qualify for all five remaining events may skew the data.

So who are the last eight:

Rob Cross 46750
James Wilson 41083
Steve Beaton 38757
Kyle Anderson 36540
Christian Kist 35210
Ronny Huybrechts 35084
Darren Webster 32327
Chris Dobey 32220
John Henderson 31623
Jonny Clayton 31193
Justin Pipe 30927
Robbie Green 30463
Jermaine Wattimena 28000
Mark Webster 27523
James Richardson 26393
Jan Dekker 25916
Dimitri van den Bergh 24334
Jeffrey de Graaf 23784
Vincent van der Voort 23700
Kevin Painter 21260
Rowby John Rodriguez 21262

So it is, er, the exact same eight making it that are listed in Burton's tweet that I link to above. What a pointless exercise. But it should give you an idea on form who's closing the gap on form better than others.

Getting bets up for round 1 of Sindelfingen seems unlikely. Round 2 seems more realistic, watch on Friday evening/Saturday morning for plays.

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