Sunday, 14 May 2017

Gibraltar round 3

Klaasen should roll Caris, whoops. Still, a good day, nicely in profit thanks to Darren Johnson mostly, that more than covered the losing bets leaving White to add bonus money. Of the losses, Clark took it to a deciding leg so I'm absolutely fine with that, Clayton also did better than the line suggests but wasn't able to get the one extra hold or break that he needed. The less said about Beaton the better but it looks like Whitlock did some good stuff on the other end so I think even if Beaton doesn't average 86 and miss a stack of doubles he still loses.


Bunting's less than a 20% shot against Wright, this seems fine, in all the legs he lost yesterday he had the opportunity to win them in 15 darts, Wright will not be allowing those opportunities and will not be allowing Bunting to win 3/4 of his first won legs in over 15. If he plays like he finished, then maybe there's a chance?

Johnson's shorter today against Norris, understandable given that Price is playing better than Norris right now (and I have him ranked ahead, I guess the official rankings don't yet). I think it's slightly too short to bet Johnson, he's a live dog but I don't think it's enough to want to take a bit at 7/4.

Dimitri van den Bergh is in the same spot price wise against Michael Smith, Smith played fantastic in the first half of the Kist match, and didn't drop off too much later on, it was more Kist coming back and playing better. Dimitri edged out Wade having survived match darts, but I think he'd need to step up or Smith drop off to win here, both can happen but I wouldn't bet on it.

Rob Cross on the other hand shouldn't be more than 2/1 against anyone that isn't a top 3 player over a short race right now. Chisnall's at number 4 as I see it, and his low average yesterday was down to two things - some legs where he missed multiple doubles (standard), and others where he lost his scoring completely. Clayton was able to punish most of them but wasn't good enough to step up in the extra leg he needed where Chisnall wasn't chucking nails, Cross probably is - 0.25u Cross 9/4

Reyes had a cracking comeback win over Richardson yesterday and is a 2/1 dog against Suljovic in a match where the winner could easily go on to reach the final. Reyes wasn't playing badly in going 4-0 down, although he did miscount badly once and miss doubles in another, but powered back strongly. Suljovic was a fifteen dart machine yesterday in a performance which looked pretty by first level statistics, play like that and Reyes doesn't stand a chance.

Caris produced the shock of the round by knocking out Klaasen, and looking good doing so with two twelve dart legs, and being left on double in every leg he lost. Benito easily dealt with Schindler without really getting out of first gear, the first leg was a comedy double missing fest, and he was allowed more than fifteen darts to win three further legs. It's almost long enough to consider betting Caris, but not quite. 7/2 no, if it was 9/2 probably.

Wilson/White is around 65/35 in favour of White, who got gifted a break yesterday to lead 3-1, couldn't clean off for 4-1 having left 121 after 9 darts, then held out from there, slotting in a break at 4-3 for insurance. Wilson took down Huybrechts winning four straight legs having been broken at 2-2 and then had an 11 darter chucked at him on throw, apart from that one leg he was never threatened on throw, but was gifted the break back he needed and the insurance break to close the game out. White shouldn't allow those chances, but may not be able to pressure enough to challenge the Wilson throw as much as needed to bet.

Whitlock/Gurney has the Aussie installed as a marginal favourite, Gurney was playing well through to about 3-3, then didn't need to do anything as well he took his foot off the gas, Webster applied the handbrake. Whitlock we mentioned above, I think this will be as close as advertised and a great paced match to end the session.

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