Monday, 17 April 2017

Euro Tour 2 final day

LOL Cullen

Last 16 coming up in less than an hour, have probably stated this before but absolutely do try to get to one of the European Tour events if you have the chance, and ideally this session - you get eight matches with a very high quality of player, and with it being the afternoon session it doesn't cost much at all (not that the evenings in Europe are that pricey) and keeps the evening free as well - I went to the corresponding event two years ago (when it was in Munich, the one Henderson finalled) and it was a great show.

So on to the games - using last night's data as well as what was posted in the previous entry, the figures for some players will change a little bit (Siepmann obviously, don't have a huge amount on the likes of de Graaf, Rodriguez etc) but as for the most part they're not changing much, and as I don't want to refresh the pivot table, I'll not repost with new figures. Yesterday was good, although Mensur's game was a bit closer than I'd have liked, pity about Evetts but I don't expect the dogs I back to win every time, just to do so enough that I'm up in the long run, he put himself into the right spots and just missed doubles so I'm fine with that.

Mensur Suljovic v Kyle Anderson - I've got Mensur at 44% and Anderson at 29%, with the rest going the distance (for the record, this is just the way my sim works - it considers legs in sets of two to avoid issues as to who has the darts), the market has it around 64/36, so I think this is quite close to an Anderson bet, he played well yesterday (both finished all legs in under 18, but Kyle had one under 12 to Mensur's zero, with both having three legs in fifteen darts) and Suljovic seems a bit off his peak of last year. Then again, it is close to home field and Anderson is wildly hit or miss. Wouldn't blame you to stab at 7/4, but I'll pass.

Jeffrey de Graaf v Jelle Klaasen - Huge opportunity for de Graaf, who hit another two twelve darters in beating Ian White, while Klaasen had a typical Klaasen game, with two twelves of his own but two taking seven or more visits to finish. Klaasen's around a 70/30 favourite, and simulations have him winning 58% to Jeffrey's 19% before a last leg, but factor in the injury and I'll leave this one as well as there's not a huge edge.

James Wade v Gerwyn Price - Price is actually the underdog on the markets, but my simulations have him as a tiny, tiny favourite. Price is at a high enough level right now that Wade's solidity can just be blown apart and looked exceptional against Hopp, so with being offered odds I'll have the first bet of the day - 0.5u Price 6/5

Peter Wright v Stephen Bunting - Bunting's a long dog, and only won one of his six legs in under fifteen darts yesterday (compared to Wright, who only won one leg in over fifteen darts). Wright claims this one in a simulation 70% of the time before a last leg, Bunting 11%, so I can't see either claiming enough of the deciders to punt here.

Simon Whitlock v Steffen Siepmann - I'm not running a sim here as Siepmann lacks data, Whitlock was fine against Clayton and Siepmann has only won two of his twelve legs in under fifteen darts, which won't cut it against the Aussie.

Rowby John Rodriguez v Michael Smith - Big opportunity for the Austrian, but Smith looked good yesterday, a twelve darter and three fifteens in making short work of Dragutin Horvat. Rowby's only just longer than 2/1, which seems too close on eye test, and the numbers seem to back it up - Smith winning 61% 6-4 or better. We need to get this up to 70% or so to bet, and with 22% of matches looking to go the distance I think it does - 1u Smith 4/9

Raymond van Barneveld v Kim Huybrechts - This could be a final on another day, oh well, the tough road for Barney continues. Market has Barney around 65/35, maybe a bit closer, but I don't know why. The Dutchman only finished one leg yesterday in under fifteen darts, so I think that there's a good chance that Huybrechts claims this. At 8/5, we need to get around 40% wins to bet, it's up to 36% without considering deciding legs, so I'll go small here - 0.25u Huybrechts 8/5

Michael van Gerwen v Cristo Reyes - We know Reyes can pressure Michael, but can he do it enough to justify betting on him at 9/1? van Gerwen had the best performance of the day yesterday, while Reyes was not too bad, with four fifteen darters against King, and the figures suggest that Reyes wins 10% before a decider, with another 17% of legs going to a decider. If he has the darts he wins the leg half the time, so if we assume the bull up is a flip and MvG never loses his throw, we have enough equity to bet Cristo, albeit really, really small - 0.1u Reyes 9/1

As an aside, well done to Wayne Jones on claiming two Challenge Tour titles, good to see he still has the competitive spirit going, and as a Dudbridge fan it was also great to see him claim a title, and hit a nine in the process for good measure. Rod's lad also won one. Props to him as well, hope it's down to taking advice from other people than his old man :)

Edit - It's an incredible long shot that I get anything up before the evening session, I have to go out about an hour before it starts so the lines aren't likely to be up by then, maybe I can look quickly at the first couple of matches, watch this space.

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