Monday, 24 April 2017

135 out 2 - The Quickening

Follow up post - warning, more maths follows.

I searched through Burton's twitter and found a decent sized sample of doubling stats - was all ranked TV and Euro Tour for most of last year. They read as:

On a double: 73%
Single to double: 62%
61-80: 46%
81-100: 33%
101-120: 22%
121-130: 11%
131-160: 6%
161+: 2%

Have rounded to the nearest percent, and the ranges aren't exact (e.g. 65 is in the previous range, 99 in the next range), but for this purpose they're fine.

Next step is to assign a range for what is left when we don't kill. Rather than the first post where I scraped the world final, let's use a simple "we throw straight tons so hit 1/3 in treble". Let's also assume we can't go to a higher tier - if we're on tops, we won't throw three inside and be left with single to double for example. It can happen in real life, but often enough to worry about. We'll also make the same assumption from the previous time that we don't miss big numbers or get bounceouts. This gives us the following:

Anything under 80: always on a double next throw.

81-100: on a double unless we leave bull and miss, this'll only happen in the 81-90 range with two misses at treble, then miss bull hitting 25 or anything that isn't both high and even. This should be about one in eighteen of all trials, including those we kill, so 33% kill, 61% on a double, 6% on single to double.

101-120: no bull faffing around here makes things easier. If we get a treble any visit, we're on a double next time up if we're not out, and staying straight leaves us with 60 left maximum, so it's all either on double or single to double. Three misses at treble is around a 30% shot, so the remaining 48% we're on a double.

121-130: some bull complications here. 30% of the time we miss three times as above and are on 61-80 next up. 15% we miss twice then hit a treble third dart to leave a double. 45% of the time we hit one treble in the first two darts, leaving a shot at bull, and the remaining 10% we hit two trebles, to leave a shot at double. We know 11% of the total is checkouts, so let's grab 4% of that from the two treble visits and the remaining 7% from the one treble visits. These all go to leaving a double apart from the bull shots. This gives us 11% kill, 24% on a double, 35% on single to double, and 30% on 61-80.

131-160: Need to split this up into two, as 141 or more leaves different outs. Basically, we have 6% outs, 34% on a double, 30% on a single to double, 10% on 61-80 and 20% on 81-100.

161+: Fairly straightforward. Three misses is 101-120 (30%), two misses is 61-80 (45%), the remainder is a double, unless we go out, or miss the bull trying and leave a single to double. This is about 8% of trials, so taking off the 2% of outs, 15% of the time we leave a double.

Following that? No? Excellent. Now let's run the figures we have from the previous 135 post and run them against each other until we can see which route wins more legs. Out of 1000 legs, how often should we win?

Opponent on a double: 276 going bull first, 271 going treble first
Opponent on single to double: 344 either way
Opponent on 61-80: 445 bull first, 453 treble first
Opponent on 81-100: 527 bull first, 544 treble first
Opponent on 101-120: 602 bull first, 626 treble first
Opponent on 121-130: 701 bull first, 723 treble first
Opponent on 131-160: 731 bull first, 760 treble first
Opponent on 161+: 795 bull first, 823 treble first

I thought it'd be a bit more in favour of going treble first, even at lower levels. Having less than a 1% difference on anything below 80 is close enough that it doesn't matter, but it quickly escalates to a 2-3% edge going treble first once the opponent is needing more than 100. I guess that only needing single for double checks out quicker than I expected compared to just being on a double accounts for a chunk of this.

Euro Tour 3 - Aftermath

Grats to Peter Wright, another 25 grand in the bank, and in my adjusted rankings he's now less than 15 grand away from overhauling Gary Anderson for number 2 in the world. Annoyed that I didn't stab at White, oh well. It's only two weeks until the next one and we can hopefully get back on track on that one.

Best player performance: Wright was very good, but I'm going to give this to Benito - was very good all weekend. 21/29 legs in fifteen or less is a great strike rate, he just couldn't get that one last leg. Cross did very well on debut, but didn't do anything spectacular statistically. Ian White also had a real solid weekend, capped off with that victory over MvG.

Best single match performance: Much as it's easy to give this to White, I don't even think that game was his best - against King and Scheffer he was killing faster. Suljovic against Bunting is a contender, van Gerwen against Hunt also, there were plenty of real solid efforts with people taking five or six legs in fifteen darts. I'm giving it to Mark Walsh though - three twelve darters is the best of the weekend and worthy of taking this.

Worst player performance: Alan Norris, come on down. He should be beating van den Bergh, not losing 6-2 with Dimitri only finishing one leg in fifteen darts.

Worst single match performance: Andy Hamilton losing 6-0 to van den Bergh is close, Payne letting a domestic qualifier win four legs in over 18 darts is bad, but it has to be Brian Woods. He won five legs, but couldn't get more than one in less than fifteen. If he averaged more than 64 in the legs he lost, we might not be mentioning this here. But he didn't, so he is.

New adjusted rankings:

1 Michael van Gerwen
2 Gary Anderson
3 Peter Wright
4 James Wade
5 Dave Chisnall
6 Raymond van Barneveld
7 Adrian Lewis
8 Mensur Suljovic
9 Jelle Klaasen (UP 1)
10 Phil Taylor (DOWN 1)
11 Kim Huybrechts
12 Benito van de Pas (UP 1)
13 Simon Whitlock (DOWN 1)
14 Ian White
15 Gerwyn Price
16 Alan Norris
17 Daryl Gurney
18 Michael Smith
19 Robert Thornton
20 Joe Cullen

Sunday, 23 April 2017

Euro Tour 3 - Final Session

Probably should have bet a few of those leans, no?

Odds are out for the final session. van Gerwen is rated around 90% to beat White. So far he's had 4 twelve darters and a further 5 legs in fifteen darts, which is going to be real hard to beat. White however actually has ten of his total twelve legs won in fifteen or less, although only two of those were twelve dart legs. This appears to be the in form White, but I'll refrain from going against van Gerwen, even though the odds look to be there to do so, simply because this looks close to peak MvG, and you don't do that.

Benito van de Pas is not even a 60/40 favourite against Cross. That's showing respect for Cross's game, I wonder if it is showing too much and makes it a bet on van de Pas. Cross, in his eighteen legs won so far, only has the one leg in twelve darts, and only half of all legs in fifteen. Benito also only has one leg in twelve darts, and less than half of all legs in fifteen (only winning the twelve legs as he's seeded obviously), which isn't too far off his historical figures of around 10% of legs in twelve and 55% in fifteen. I'm lacking significant data on Cross, only having his UK Open loss in the database, so I'll hold off.

Wright's 75% against Price. While he has a four game winning streak, including the major final, their earlier meeting in Europe was only 6-5. Their speed to finish this afternoon was identical, although Wright was a lot better in round 2. I'm not sure if this isn't a Price bet with both players being unconvincing today.

Klaasen and Suljovic are very close to even money, with Mensur being the slight favourite. This weekend, Klaasen's two games were identical, both with three in fifteen darts and three in eighteen. Mensur has it 4-2, with a couple of the legs against Bunting actually being twelve darters. Historical stats have Jelle as a touch better finishing in twelve darts, with Mensur being a touch better in fifteen and eighteen. With Jelle not having hit a twelve all tournament, this is a concern, but Mensur isn't that big a favourite to fire at 4/5.

Other thoughts now that I've plugged all the stats in - King is really playing quite well. White played out of his skin today, but after a slightly sluggish start vs Green, every won leg against Huybrechts was in fifteen or less, and he tacked on another three of the four he won against White while averaging 97 in the legs White won for good pressure. He won't claw back into my live top 20 this weekend, but is getting close after Cullen knocked him down. Mark Walsh had three twelve darters in his first round match which is quite absurd. Warrick Scheffer's numbers looked surprisingly good. No idea what Josh Payne was doing. Blum won four of six legs in 19 darts or more, as Payne was averaging just 79 when losing. Yet Payne won three of four legs in 15 or less?

Saturday, 22 April 2017

Euro Tour 3

Wow, that's quite the quick turnaround from the previous event, I was thinking this was next weekend so completely overlooked the previous day's play. No time to analyse today's matchups, at least in terms of recommending bets, but some thoughts on seeds that could fall:

- Richardson might have a chance against Price if he can tighten up some of his looser visits, his doubling stat wasn't great but they were missed in clumps in a couple of legs where he'd given himself time to do so, other times he killed quickly enough against a decent test in Henderson. Would likely require Price to have a bit of a dud like vs Wade last week to help.

- Adam Hunt won't be without chances against Steve West, he got some fifteen darters yesterday and could have got more but for missing a couple of doubles, West hasn't been too convincing this year and Hunt's threatened for a while now.

- Rob Cross is obviously in with a shot, Smith could easily just chuck in fifteens and the odd twelve for fun, but Cross seems much less likely to not show up.

- Vincent van der Voort could easily take advantage of Cullen if he doesn't correct the poor play he showed last weekend (or, as Cullen himself admitted, the game he had immediately before winning the Pro Tour title).

- Nathan Aspinall has got to be live if he plays like he did yesterday, it looks like every single leg won was in fifteen darts or less against Robert Thornton, keep that up and Chisnall's propensity to miss doubles could let him in.

Tuesday, 18 April 2017

Euro Tour 2 aftermath

Congrats to MvG on returning to the winners' circle, an impressive performance which saw him nail eleven 12 dart legs on the way to another 25 grand in the bank. Don't think there were many huge surprises in terms of the final session, obviously Siepmann making the final day was a big result for him, but the last eight didn't see anyone that'd make you do a double take.

Disappointing betting yesterday. Wade does it again despite only getting half the legs he won in fifteen darts, Barney was a long shot and running into three twelve darters is hard to overcome. Wade's semi final is incredibly baffling, he didn't get a single twelve darter all weekend (from 21 legs won), and two out of every three legs won took more than fifteen darts. He was only averaging 91 in losing legs as well. I guess just running into people playing badly is a useful talent to have, I've commented on Price earlier, Wright had two shots to break Wade in fifteen darts, and let himself be broken in six visits. Heck, Klaasen allowed himself to be broken against Wade in nine visits, although he was at least 4-1 up by then. Did we learn anything? I don't think so, I'd fire those bets again, sometimes your guy doesn't show up and there's nothing you can do about it.

Best player performance: van Gerwen I think quite clearly was easily the best player. Nobody else did anything really special, Siepmann had a run but didn't play that good to do so, de Graaf had a bit of a charmed life.

Best single match performance: Barney over Plooy, if we're not giving two gongs to MvG, three twelves and a couple of fifteens.

Worst player performance: Joe Cullen needs to beat domestic qualifiers, simple as.

Worst single match performance: Pipe not winning a leg against Larsson. Rowby in his game against Smith is a close second.

New adjusted rankings:

1 Michael van Gerwen
2 Gary Anderson
3 Peter Wright
4 James Wade (UP 1)
5 Dave Chisnall (DOWN 1)
6 Raymond van Barneveld
7 Adrian Lewis
8 Mensur Suljovic
9 Phil Taylor
10 Jelle Klaasen
11 Kim Huybrechts
12 Simon Whitlock
13 Benito van de Pas
14 Ian White
15 Gerwyn Price (UP 1)
16 Alan Norris (DOWN 1)
17 Daryl Gurney
18 Michael Smith
19 Robert Thornton
20 Joe Cullen

A follow up post to the 135 out entry will follow this week - I've dug out the PDC wide stats on doubling, so will look into the future at what our opponent does on various outs to see if there's a break even point in which to go for it now (which I doubt).

Monday, 17 April 2017

Euro Tour 2 final day - evening session

Well that was disappointing from a gambling standpoint - Price being the main culprit, he could have taken every single leg that Wade won if he'd just thrown a fifteen darter, which is really poor for a man in his form. Smith did what he needed, helped by Rowby having an off day (and his off days are really, really off), while Reyes really didn't get a sniff from the 3-1 lead - van Gerwen holding in twelve twice, holding another in fifteen and then breaking in twelve to get it back on throw, he did break in fifteen to ice the match but Reyes needed another break by that stage. Huybrechts maybe had more chances, 6-4 is close and he let Barney break in fifteen darts twice, his four missed darts at double were all in legs he lost so pin those and it's 6-4 the other way.

Odds are up quickly so a quick quarter final preview - Anderson/Klassen is a huge inconsistency faceoff, Anderson played the better this afternoon, the bookies have it even, so do my stats - both at 36 point something percent to win before a deciding leg. Wade/Wright has Wright installed as greater than a 70% favourite, Wade's not played well at all in either game so far, only finishing three of twelve legs in fifteen darts or less (Wright, by contrast, having nine legs in fifteen or under), so a Wright bet is tempting. The figures say Wright takes in regulation over 60% to Wade's 17%, Wright should take enough of the remainder to make this a bet, coupled with Wade playing less than solidly I'll have a stab - 1u Wright 2/5. Whitlock/Smith sees Smith installed as a small underdog, both had the same profile in today's game with three legs in fifteen darts and three in eighteen a piece. I have Whitlock at 40% in regulation to Smith's 34%, so the line looks close enough to me. Barney/MvG should be spectacular, Barney of round 2 loses, Barney of today has a chance, but he's given less than a 20% chance by the bookmakers. I have him at that figure without even considering what happens if it gets to 5-5, it is a short race and he shouldn't be that long odds. 102 average today with 50% on doubles and nearly twice as many 140+ scores as standard tons looks tough to beat, van Gerwen should but I don't think he does it enough to not bet on the elder Dutchman - 0.25u van Barneveld 9/2.

Definitely won't have anything up before the semis/final, should hopefully have a wrap up post after all's said and done.

Euro Tour 2 final day

LOL Cullen

Last 16 coming up in less than an hour, have probably stated this before but absolutely do try to get to one of the European Tour events if you have the chance, and ideally this session - you get eight matches with a very high quality of player, and with it being the afternoon session it doesn't cost much at all (not that the evenings in Europe are that pricey) and keeps the evening free as well - I went to the corresponding event two years ago (when it was in Munich, the one Henderson finalled) and it was a great show.

So on to the games - using last night's data as well as what was posted in the previous entry, the figures for some players will change a little bit (Siepmann obviously, don't have a huge amount on the likes of de Graaf, Rodriguez etc) but as for the most part they're not changing much, and as I don't want to refresh the pivot table, I'll not repost with new figures. Yesterday was good, although Mensur's game was a bit closer than I'd have liked, pity about Evetts but I don't expect the dogs I back to win every time, just to do so enough that I'm up in the long run, he put himself into the right spots and just missed doubles so I'm fine with that.

Mensur Suljovic v Kyle Anderson - I've got Mensur at 44% and Anderson at 29%, with the rest going the distance (for the record, this is just the way my sim works - it considers legs in sets of two to avoid issues as to who has the darts), the market has it around 64/36, so I think this is quite close to an Anderson bet, he played well yesterday (both finished all legs in under 18, but Kyle had one under 12 to Mensur's zero, with both having three legs in fifteen darts) and Suljovic seems a bit off his peak of last year. Then again, it is close to home field and Anderson is wildly hit or miss. Wouldn't blame you to stab at 7/4, but I'll pass.

Jeffrey de Graaf v Jelle Klaasen - Huge opportunity for de Graaf, who hit another two twelve darters in beating Ian White, while Klaasen had a typical Klaasen game, with two twelves of his own but two taking seven or more visits to finish. Klaasen's around a 70/30 favourite, and simulations have him winning 58% to Jeffrey's 19% before a last leg, but factor in the injury and I'll leave this one as well as there's not a huge edge.

James Wade v Gerwyn Price - Price is actually the underdog on the markets, but my simulations have him as a tiny, tiny favourite. Price is at a high enough level right now that Wade's solidity can just be blown apart and looked exceptional against Hopp, so with being offered odds I'll have the first bet of the day - 0.5u Price 6/5

Peter Wright v Stephen Bunting - Bunting's a long dog, and only won one of his six legs in under fifteen darts yesterday (compared to Wright, who only won one leg in over fifteen darts). Wright claims this one in a simulation 70% of the time before a last leg, Bunting 11%, so I can't see either claiming enough of the deciders to punt here.

Simon Whitlock v Steffen Siepmann - I'm not running a sim here as Siepmann lacks data, Whitlock was fine against Clayton and Siepmann has only won two of his twelve legs in under fifteen darts, which won't cut it against the Aussie.

Rowby John Rodriguez v Michael Smith - Big opportunity for the Austrian, but Smith looked good yesterday, a twelve darter and three fifteens in making short work of Dragutin Horvat. Rowby's only just longer than 2/1, which seems too close on eye test, and the numbers seem to back it up - Smith winning 61% 6-4 or better. We need to get this up to 70% or so to bet, and with 22% of matches looking to go the distance I think it does - 1u Smith 4/9

Raymond van Barneveld v Kim Huybrechts - This could be a final on another day, oh well, the tough road for Barney continues. Market has Barney around 65/35, maybe a bit closer, but I don't know why. The Dutchman only finished one leg yesterday in under fifteen darts, so I think that there's a good chance that Huybrechts claims this. At 8/5, we need to get around 40% wins to bet, it's up to 36% without considering deciding legs, so I'll go small here - 0.25u Huybrechts 8/5

Michael van Gerwen v Cristo Reyes - We know Reyes can pressure Michael, but can he do it enough to justify betting on him at 9/1? van Gerwen had the best performance of the day yesterday, while Reyes was not too bad, with four fifteen darters against King, and the figures suggest that Reyes wins 10% before a decider, with another 17% of legs going to a decider. If he has the darts he wins the leg half the time, so if we assume the bull up is a flip and MvG never loses his throw, we have enough equity to bet Cristo, albeit really, really small - 0.1u Reyes 9/1

As an aside, well done to Wayne Jones on claiming two Challenge Tour titles, good to see he still has the competitive spirit going, and as a Dudbridge fan it was also great to see him claim a title, and hit a nine in the process for good measure. Rod's lad also won one. Props to him as well, hope it's down to taking advice from other people than his old man :)

Edit - It's an incredible long shot that I get anything up before the evening session, I have to go out about an hour before it starts so the lines aren't likely to be up by then, maybe I can look quickly at the first couple of matches, watch this space.

Saturday, 15 April 2017

Euro Tour 2 - Day 2

Thanks Ricky Evans for blowing that 5-1 lead :)

Some interesting stories on day 1, all but one of the Germans making it through (although one needed Gilding averaging 66 to do so), Barney hitting three twelve darters or better, Gurney turning over Lewis and Pipe losing 6-0 to someone from Sweden who isn't Magnus Caris. On to day 2:

Ian White (11.54% twelve darters, 54.62% fifteen darters, 90.00% eighteen darters, 89.54 losing average) v Jeffrey de Graaf (11.11%, 40.74%, 85.19%, 86.92) - de Graaf's used up his life here and is running into someone who can produce the good leg as often as he can, but is a lot more consistent in all other areas. White's around a 70% favourite which I think is probably a bit high when running simulations, but I think White's consistency sees him through enough.

Stephen Bunting (8.47%, 50.85%, 91.53%, 88.02) v Ted Evetts (16.13%, 41.94%, 83.87%, 89.38) - Evetts has as many twelve darters in my database as Bunting, having won only half as many legs. Bunting's a bit more consistent in other areas, as such he should win this before a deciding leg about half the time, but that's not enough to offset the odds we're offered on Evetts, so I'll have a small play - 0.25u Evetts 7/4

Steve West (7.69%, 42.31%, 86.54%, 85.84) v Kyle Anderson (10.87%, 60.87%, 91.30%, 84.26) - the only thing that West has in his favour is he's less likely to have complete duff legs, which isn't enough really. Anderson isn't much of a betting favourite here at all, maybe the weak average today having an effect, but my simulations have him over 60% without needing a decider which is enough for me - 0.5u Anderson 3/4

Michael Smith (14.44%, 60.00%, 92.22%, 90.43%) v Dragutin Horvat (2.86%, 45.71%, 77.14%, 82.77) - Smith is the far superior player and Horvat's only realistic chance is that the bad Smith from last year turns up. Smith's 80/20 at the bookies, which seems correct give or take a percentage point, so I'll leave alone

Kim Huybrechts (20.00%, 70.53%, 92.63%, 88.25) v Daniel Larsson (16.67%, 33.33%, 83.33%, no data) - Huybrechts isn't Pipe so I can't see Larsson repeating. Kim's 7/1 on which given the lack of data on Larsson, I'll ignore.

Simon Whitlock (9.90%, 67.33%, 91.09%, 91.19) v Jonny Clayton (4.65%, 48.84%, 83.72%, 88.14) - Whitlock is around a 75/25 favourite. The figures I have see him clean up before a deciding leg 65% of the time, and 20% of games get to 5-5, so there's no edge here.

Gerwyn Price (7.79%, 60.39%, 88.96%, 89.23) v Max Hopp (7.55%, 35.85%, 90.57%, 84.76) - Should be an exciting game this with the home crowd likely to get involved, but Price will put away Hopp's continual 18 dart legs more than often enough to get home here, 0.5u Price 8/15

Benito van de Pas (10.69%, 54.20%, 90.84%, 90.63) v Rowby John Rodriguez (3.33%, 46.67%, 83.33%, 87.16) - Rowby, if he turns up, could push Benito, whether he does it enough to justify a bet at 5/2 is another question. He needs around 30% equity to bet, and I only have him winning 21% before a decider, with another 23% of games getting to 5-5. It's very close, and I don't think he was that convincing today to fire.

James Wade (8.33%, 57.84%, 92.65%, 91.34) v Robert Thornton (14.47%, 53.95%, 88.16%, 84.92) - Wade's shorter than 2/1 on, and while he has a huge advantage in terms of not taking legs off, just looking at the legs he wins Wade doesn't win enough and it should actually be a Thornton bet. I don't want to bet on Thornton in a spot like this though, as Wade is the worst type of opponent for him to face.

Joe Cullen (9.65%, 57.02%, 92.98%, 88.52) v Stefan Siepmann (16.67%, 16.67%, 66.67%, 65.23) - Siepmann didn't need to do much to win today. He'll need to do a lot better against Cullen and I really don't think he can. Cullen's 1/10 though, so no bet here.

Mensur Suljovic (11.17%, 67.60%, 96.65%, 92.81) v Jamie Lewis (8.82%, 44.12%, 85.29%, 87.43) - Lewis got through against Lerchbacher who's a solid opponent when he's not missing doubles, which he was. Suljovic is obviously a lot harder of a test, as such the bookies have it as a 75/25 game. I've got Suljovic winning over 70% of the time before a deciding leg, with Lewis barely winning 10%, and I think Mensur claims enough of the remainder to make it a bet - 1u Suljovic 1/3

Jelle Klaasen (14.84%, 65.16%, 88.39%, 90.00) v Daryl Gurney (10.32%, 61.11%, 96.03%, 91.31) - Gurney's the betting favourite, but only around 60/40. Klaasen's injury may have something to do with that, as may Gurney's form and Klaasen losing first round in both events last week. My figures have Klaasen as having the edge, but only around 55/45, and they don't take into account the factors mentioned above, so I'll leave this alone and hope it's exciting.

Peter Wright (15.79%, 70.47%, 94.15%, 95.96) v Mark Webster (6.41%, 50.00%, 89.74%, 87.75) - Wright's form has been a bit indifferent since the UK Open, but not so much that he's not well over an 80% favourite on the market. Webster I don't think is quite live enough to bet, he has chances but only around what the market thinks. If it was 6/1 instead of 9/2 I might be tempted.

Alan Norris (7.52%, 66.17%, 92.48%, 86.82) v Raymond van Barneveld (19.31%, 71.29%, 96.04%, 94.65) - on another day this could easily be a last day evening session match, oh well. Norris apparently doesn't have even a 1 in 3 shot according to the bookmakers, if Barney plays like he did today, at least in the legs he won, then I don't think it's even that much. My stats think the line is right, so will not bet.

Michael van Gerwen (30.65%, 77.15%, 97.04%, 97.31) v John Michael (5.26%, 52.63%, 84.21%, 77.68) - Michael has maybe a chance of some sort of miracle, but is it enough to bet at 12/1? I have it as 4% wins 6-4 or better, with another 10% of legs going to a decider. It's not enough.

Cristo Reyes (12.50%, 61.25%, 93.75%, 91.48) v Mervyn King (15.94%, 53.62%, 92.75%, 88.94) - bookies have the final game as a coinflip, which is a nice way to finish. These stats have Reyes as a small favourite, but they don't take into account King's decent play on the floor, so I won't be betting this one. King was hitting doubles today and averaging decently, so will just watch and hope this goes the distance.

Euro Tour 2

Bit late to get anything up before the afternoon session, but the evening session looks like it could be a good one, so let's see what we have:

Jeffrey de Graaf - Ricky Evans: This is priced as even money, which I find a bit odd, de Graaf's only made the last sixteen on tour once this season and that was a couple of months ago, and while Evans hasn't even done that, his statistics are a lot better - de Graaf only has 8/21 won legs in under fifteen darts, compared to Evans' 15/26, and Evans is scoring better while losing, so I think there's enough there for a punt - 0.5u Evans evs

Sven Groen - Mervyn King: King's playing some of the best darts he's played in years, reaching five floor quarter finals or better so far. He's prohibitively odds on over a short distance, I have no data on Groen but he's not been that impressive so far since gaining his tour card.

Steffan Siepmann - Andrew Gilding: Siepmann I know nothing about (dartsdatabase offering little help), Gilding we know something about, but at 3/10 I don't want to be rushing on given the relative lack of form since the UK Open. That he didn't play the last two Pro Tour events is also somewhat of a red flag.

Ronnie Baxter - Kyle Anderson: Baxter made a good run at the UK Open, but hasn't made it to the last 32 on the floor more than once this year, Anderson's super inconsistent but should have enough class to pull through, not sure about the 1/3 odds though.

Daryl Gurney - Adrian Lewis: God damn this is explosive for a first round match, you've got someone who made two floor finals last week against a twice world champion who hit a nine darter just two days ago. Lewis is priced around a 60/40 favourite, and is solidly ahead of Gurney in terms of twelve and fifteen darter percentages, but Lewis also throws in the odd duff leg and against a man in Gurney's form it only takes one of those on your own throw to be out. Line looks OK so will leave it alone.

Dirk van Duijvenbode - Robert Thornton: Thornton had an alright weekend last time out, reaching round 3 in one event and winning his board on the other, van Duijvenbode had a good UK Open and made a tour quarter final last month but is on a four game losing streak since beating Whitlock for his only money since then. DvD has good odds and while I don't have a great deal of data on him, he is certainly capable of putting together enough legs often enough to make this a bet - 0.25u van Duijvenbode 9/4

Robert Marijanovic - John Michael: Michael's about a 60/40 favourite on the betting lines, and is playing alright - winning his board last time out and this being the second event of the two he qualified for on the same day. Marijanovic I have a lot less data on and find it hard to think he's that far inferior to place a bet either way.

Michael Plooy - Raymond van Barneveld: Barney's 12/1 on, Plooy lost 6-5 last time out with some alright legs, but couldn't get the crucial one against Kist. I can't see a way for him to win against Barney, so will leave this one alone.

Monday, 10 April 2017

135 out

WARNING - Lots of maths follows, so scan down to the bottom if you don't care and just want the cliffnotes, also bolded

I made a post a couple of months ago entitled Staying Alive, and I've now had the time to run some of the numbers about it. The gist of it was whether, on certain three dart outshots, it's better to go for the bull first to keep your chances alive into the second dart, or whether you have more chance of killing in the three dart combination as a whole.

Burton posted an analysis of Deller's 138 outshot against Bristow on his blog late last year, which gives us some of the figures we need. The bottom line is that van Gerwen, when asked, said he hits 25 or bull 80% of the time, and that in the European Tour events he was looking at, bull itself was hit between 25 and 30% of the time. I'm going to take the lower figure of those, simply through sanity checking - the bull is really quite small, so much so that I don't think that your average player is actually hitting it anywhere near the higher figure when compared to the amount of times they hit a much larger target, namely a double.

How often do players hit doubles and trebles? I've looked through the last World Championship final, and van Gerwen and Anderson, combined, were 44 out of 106 on doubles, or 41.5%. Looking through the dartsdata commentary, first dart in hand on scoring they were a combined 132 out of 293 on hitting a big treble, or 45%.

This is a strange situation - you would think that with doubles being larger than trebles, they would be hit more often, but there's a few counterarguments as to why the figure is lower. Firstly, it will incorporate darts at the bull, of which there were about one attempt per set before I got bored of counting. Secondly, with more than one dart in hand, players may be tempted to leave a marker rather than going straight at it, which will drag the percentage down. Thirdly, there's more pressure in going for a leg (in a world final as well) than there will be in your run of the mill hitting treble 20 to get there in the first place. But for now, we'll use those figures.

Three quick assumptions - we don't have any bounceouts, and we don't miss big numbers. The calculations have got to be somewhat quick to do. I'm also treating each dart as an independent variable - clearly they're not but it's something I need to do here. I'm also going to round off a bunch of figures where it's not going to make much difference for clarity purposes.

The staying alive way of hitting 135 is to go bull first. Let's start with worst case scenario - we miss entirely. 20% of the time this happens, and we're left with something in the 115-134 area to set up. If we assume that our misses are evenly distributed, then we have:

- Six cases (115-120) where we need just one treble to leave a shot at double. I know that on 119 if we hit the treble on the 19's we still need another one, but I'll count it like this as otherwise it's one sole case. 30% of the time we miss twice and are on a two darter in the 75-80 range, the rest of the time we are on a single darter.

- Fourteen cases where we need two trebles to leave a shot at double. 20% of the time we hit this. Same as before, 30% of the time we miss twice and are on something above 80 when we return, 50% of the time we miss once and hit once and have a single/double shot. We can improve a touch if we use the bull again, say when we are left with 121/125, but I'm grouping again as it's not going to add that much equity.

So overall we have 35% on a double, 35% on 41-60, 9% on 61-80 and 21% on 81-100.

Second scenario - we hit 25 first dart. Just the one permutation here which makes things easier. Now here we either hit treble 20 or we don't. We do this 45% of the time. If we do, 25% of the time we go out, 55% of the time we leave 25, and the rest of the time we leave something between 30 and 49 - six of these are shots at double, the rest aren't, so when we hit treble 20, it's 25% out, 6% on a double, the remaining 69% is fat number for double.

If we miss, then we're on 90. There's a few routes here but let's say we opt for treble 18. This is straight forward - 45% of the time we come back on 36, the rest on 72.

Overall, it's roughly 11% out, 27.5% on a double, 31% on big number for double and 30% needing 61-80.

Final scenario - we hit bull first to leave 85. We go for a big treble of choice and then either:

- Hit 45% of the time. Of that percentage, 41% of the time we go out, 59% we are still on a double when we return.

- Miss 55% of the time. This will leave us 70 or 66, depending on how much we like double 14 compared to tops. We then go for another treble, leaving a double if we hit or fat number for double if we don't.

Overall in this situation, it's about 18% out, 51% on a double, the rest needing a big number to be on a double.

Pull all that together, and the overall situation going bull first is:

Check out 10.8%
Leave double 34.92%
Leave fat number for double 31.64%
Leave 61-80 18.44%
Leave 81-100 4.2%

Got that? Good! Now let's go treble 19 first. 45% of the time we hit and leave 78. Much as I ignored some of the possibilities of maybe increasing equity by using bull, I'm going to ignore the possibility of going double-double to kill here, because I'm not Simon Whitlock, and the numbers say we hit trebles more often regardless, so it's a bad idea. Treble 18 it is. 45% of the time we hit again. This is about 20% of all cases. 24 left, and 41% there we go out. This is overall around an 8.3% chance of killing - which is less, but what happens when we don't go out is also key. Clearly the remaining 11+% is on a double, but what about the rest?

If we hit first dart and leave 78, but then miss treble 18, we will, using our assumption we don't miss big numbers, leave tops every time. This accounts for nearly one in four of all possible outcomes.

If we miss first dart and leave 116, we then hit a treble next next dart 45% of the time and leave a double every single time. This also accounts for nearly one in four of all possibilities.

If we miss first and second dart, then we're on 97 (or maybe 96, switching to 20's after missing first up is obviously fine) and need treble to leave a double. It's about one in three times where we miss twice, so hitting third dart adds another 13-14% of all cases where we're on a double if we return.

Finally, we can miss all three times, and leave something like 76, 78 - probability of this is a simple 55% cubed.

So our overall figures through NOT going bull first are:

Check out 8.3%
Leave double 75.06%
Leave 61-80 16.64%

That difference in leaving a double is huge. Enormous. I can't think that it's ever correct to try to check out an extra 1 in 40 legs in order to leave yourself more work to do 4 out of every ten legs should the opponent not kill. Not a chance. You'd have to be extremely sure your opponent will finish to give up the extra winning chances when you return.

I didn't pick 132 for a reason - firstly, going bull and hitting bull has more permutations, in that you can go bull again and it might make sense to do so, rather than bailing out to a treble as you have to do on 135. Secondly, if you opt for treble 20 first up, leaving 72 rather than 78 makes it a lot more enticing to try a double-double out - it's either two 18's or tops-double 16.

Cliffs - yes, going bull first gets you out slightly more often in one visit. It also gets you out significantly less often in two visits.

Sunday, 9 April 2017

Players Championship 7/8

No van Gerwen, Anderson or Taylor opened up a few possibilities for people this weekend, who took them? Let's see.

Performance of the weekend - can go to none other than Daryl Gurney. Winning your first PDC title and then following it up with a final the day after is incredible stuff. Only downside was a failure to qualify for Saarbr├╝cken, but I don't think he'll be that bothered given what happened afterwards. Looking elsewhere for contenders, Wade did alright, Price also was solid, a lot further down Steve Lennon and Jimmy Hendriks had good weekends, Lennon also qualifying for the aforementioned European Tour event. Paul Nicholson also managed qualification and two round of 32 performances, so an upturn for the Asset, the same result as Maik Langendorf, at least in the Players Championship events.

Best tournament performance - Joe Cullen for getting his first title. It wasn't the trickiest run in the world, but you've still got to beat whoever is in front of you. King, Richardson and Kellett had solid runs today, while Lennon gets credit for his run yesterday. Wattimena on Saturday also had some great scores.

Best single match performance - A few contenders here. Wayne Jones turning over Peter Wright first round has to be up there, Craig Gilchrist coming from nowhere to overturn Whitlock at the same stage, Kellett turning over van Barneveld towards the business end is also huge. Chris Quantock 6-0 over Gilding in the Euro qualifier is a good result. Huybrechts steamrolling Wade 6-0 in the last 16 on Saturday gets my nod though, it's towards the end of a tournament against a player in form, and he made it look easy.

Worst weekend long performance - Jelle, you're either injured or you're not. If you are, just get the surgery or rest up and just concentrate on the Euro events. Don't lost first round to Richie Corner and Scott Taylor. Bunting, Darren Webster and White didn't have the best weekends, but it's got to go to Klaasen.

Worst single tournament performance - Wright not even making it into the money today, with the draw he had I'd have expected a quarter final as a minimum. Barney losing round one to Meikle is close.

I have a few thoughts on checkouts that I want to post up later this week but need to do some analysis first - I think there's enough openly available information to try to debunk some theories, it's just a case of pulling it together.

Current adjusted top 20:

1 Michael van Gerwen
2 Gary Anderson
3 Peter Wright
4 Dave Chisnall
5 James Wade
6 Raymond van Barneveld
7 Adrian Lewis
8 Mensur Suljovic
9 Phil Taylor
10 Jelle Klaasen
11 Kim Huybrechts
12 Simon Whitlock
13 Benito van de Pas
14 Ian White
15 Alan Norris
16 Gerwyn Price
17 Daryl Gurney (UP 1)
18 Michael Smith (DOWN 1)
19 Robert Thornton
20 Joe Cullen (NEW)

Sunday, 2 April 2017

Players Championship 5/6, GOAT Simulator 2 - Electric Boogaloo

Funny how I've been talking about consistency in the last couple of posts, and then Adrian Lewis misses a nine darter for the title yesterday, and takes another nine darts to finish on double 1. Grats to Adie for getting the win, and also to MvG for the title today, who shall I give props to?

Performance of the weekend - Richard North and it's not even close. Anyone getting to two quarter finals in a weekend has to be close to this, but to do it as someone that nobody knows much about, beating the likes of in form van Duijvenbode, also in form van den Bergh and Wade? Nice work. Pity he couldn't get over the line in the Euro qualifiers.

Best tournament performance - North could have grabbed either of these, but I think it has to go to MvG - that wasn't the easiest set of opponents he will see in one of these, and he breezed through it, only dropping 4 legs from the quarter final onwards against Huybrechts/King/Wright. Nice arrows.

Best single match performance - Mark Webster seemed to be on this weekend, missing I believe a shot at double for a nine darter, and Dave Chisnall just casually rolled him 6-0 in a quarter final, so I'll give this one to Chizzy.

Worst weekend long performance -  Benito van de Pas is a contender, losing first round 6-5 both days to Ryan Meikle and Adrian Lewis, but Adie might be forgivable, as such I'll award this to Michael Smith for busting first round twice to Pete Hudson and Shaun Griffiths. Just when we think he's back in form.

Worst single tournament performance - While it would be harsh to give it to someone with an injury losing in the first round to a former world champion, Klaasen 6-0 to Burnett seems fine. There's a few other contenders, but none match the scoreline and differential in quality quite as much as this one.

Re: GOAT Simulator. I have yet to find a video of the 1998 final on the interwebs, but I've pulled the stats off the other four finals I mentioned. Taylor's numbers:

Year (opponent)/12 darters/15 darters/18 darters/19+ darters/losing average
1990 (6-1 vs Bristow)/1/12/5/2/97.18
2001 (7-0 vs Part)/2/15/4/0/108.33
2006 (7-0 vs Manley)/6/13/2/0/97.20
2009 (7-1 vs van Barneveld)/6/15/2/0/109.02

Combine those all and you get the following figures:
12 darts or less - 17.68%
15 darts or less - 82.35%
18 darts or less - 97.65%
Losing average - 102.73

In comparison, Michael van Gerwen, right now, is on 30.65% twelves, 77.15% fifteens, 97.04% eighteens with a 97.31 losing average, over a 372 legs won sample (Taylor - 85). I might run through the Part 2003 and van Barneveld 2007 finals at some point in the near future, but I think we can tell that Taylor got it won by simply not giving the opponents a chance to win easy legs. That fifteen dart percentage is very high, and when opponents were winning, they were being put under decent pressure to do so. He's not hitting that many twelves, in fact it's less than two points higher than what his current numbers are, it's just the continual knowledge of knowing that if you don't go out in fifteen darts, Taylor will. If you don't do that leg on leg on your throw, he will break you, and you will need to chuck in a twelve darter in order to gain an advantage.

I don't have the time to run the numbers this evening, but I'd like to think that MvG has the edge, even if we compare just against the best figures which seem to be the 2009 final. We'll see.

Answer to the previous post's question: Neither won. Both hit three twelve darters - Bristow hit two (one being overkill to win the second set with Taylor way back in 250, one to deny much later with Taylor on 41 after nine darts), Part hit one in the first set with Taylor on 81 after nine. Barney also threw four twelve darters in the 2009 loss out of twelve legs won. Read what you like into that one.

Edit - to include the current adjusted top 20:

1 Michael van Gerwen
2 Gary Anderson
3 Peter Wright
4 Dave Chisnall (UP 1)
5 James Wade (DOWN 1)
6 Raymond van Barneveld
7 Adrian Lewis
8 Mensur Suljovic
9 Phil Taylor
10 Jelle Klaasen
11 Kim Huybrechts
12 Simon Whitlock (UP 1)
13 Benito van de Pas (DOWN 1)
14 Ian White
15 Alan Norris
16 Gerwyn Price (UP 1)
17 Michael Smith (DOWN 1)
18 Daryl Gurney
19 Robert Thornton
20 Mervyn King

Saturday, 1 April 2017

Some miscellaneous stuff from previous posts

Premier League relegation has been and gone. You may recall I tried to predict where players would be at this stage, so here's how they've over or underperformed in comparison to the predictions:

van Gerwen 14 (-0.7)
Wright 13 (+2.09)
van Barneveld 12 (+1.88)
Anderson 11 (-1.15)
Taylor 11 (+4.68)
Lewis 9 (-1.62)
Wade 8 (+2.79)
Chisnall 6 (-0.74)
Klaasen 3 (-3.39)
Huybrechts 3 (-3.84)

It's minorly interesting to note that the three runners who were in the bottom 10 of the consistency stats in the previous post are the three that underperformed the most (although we should obviously discount Klaasen a bit with his injury, and Huybrechts sadly not being there on Thursday), and the three who are on top of those consistency stats outperformed their predictions by the most. I think Phil doing it by that much is partially that Phil's data from the worlds is a bit crap in comparison to the larger data set I now have (his 12 dart percentage is up four points, his 15 dart percentage is up seven), but it is odd how there appears to be some correlation.

Additionally, you may recall the GOAT Simulator post. I've watched through the 1990, 2001 and 2006 finals so far and should get to 1998 and 2009 tomorrow. Pop quiz - in the finals between Taylor/Bristow and Taylor/Part, who hit more twelve darters, Taylor or his opponents? Answers on a postcard - I'll give you a hint that Taylor won 41 legs in those finals to the opposition 13. Ignoring that, some of the stuff he did was just ridiculous - going for bull for a 10 darter is something.