Monday, 26 June 2017

The FRH performance index

As I have half an hour before an incredibly critical appointment to see a man about a dog, I thought I'd crunch some numbers on the stats that I've mentioned a few times, namely how quickly someone finished in four, five or six visits, and what they average when they're losing. I've taken the top 50 in the official rankings and added anyone in my top 50 that isn't there (which is just Rob Cross instead of Ricky Evans) and assigned the following points.

The first table gives 45 points for the highest scorer in each category, and scales it down so that scoring zero would get you zero. The second table, which I think is more useful, gives you 45 points if you are the highest scorer in a category, and zero points for whatever the lowest scorer has, scaled linearly in between. I think this is better, as at least on the last two categories it's really easy to score some sort of decent tally. For aesthetics, the perfect score as a result would be 180. So, without further ado, here's the figures, firstly for zero score = zero points:

1 Michael van Gerwen 179.52
2 Gary Anderson 167.89
3 Raymond van Barneveld 156.50
4 Adrian Lewis 153.33
5 Phil Taylor 152.01
6 Peter Wright 150.51
7 Kim Huybrechts 149.91
8 Dave Chisnall 147.36
9 Mensur Suljovic 144.53
10 Michael Smith 144.50
11 Vincent van der Voort 142.12
12 Cristo Reyes 137.35
13 Simon Whitlock 137.04
14 Mervyn King 136.48
15 Darren Webster 136.27
16 Jelle Klaasen 135.38
17 Joe Cullen 135.25
18 Ian White 134.13
19 Robbie Green 133.31
20 Robert Thornton 132.75
21 Daryl Gurney 132.40
22 Kyle Anderson 131.25
23 Benito van de Pas 130.06
24 Steve Beaton 129.85
25 Gerwyn Price 128.66
26 James Wade 127.04
27 Alan Norris 126.91
28 Stephen Bunting 126.76
29 Rob Cross 126.23
30 Ricky Evans 124.75
31 Terry Jenkins 124.75
32 John Henderson 124.58
33 Chris Dobey 122.79
34 Dimitri van den Bergh 122.64
35 Jonny Clayton 122.50
36 Joe Murnan 121.56
37 Brendan Dolan 121.10
38 James Wilson 119.38
39 Steve West 119.01
40 Jermaine Wattimena 118.05
41 Max Hopp 117.75
42 Christian Kist 117.04
43 Mark Webster 116.65
44 Ronny Huybrechts 116.42
45 Jamie Lewis 115.68
46 Kevin Painter 112.87
47 Rowby John Rodriguez 110.33
48 Justin Pipe 107.34
49 Josh Payne 105.32
50 Jamie Caven 105.18
51 Andrew Gilding 100.88

Secondly, for lowest score = zero points:

1 Michael van Gerwen 177.12
2 Gary Anderson 165.30
3 Raymond van Barneveld 143.46
4 Phil Taylor 143.07
5 Peter Wright 139.33
6 Adrian Lewis 129.64
7 Mensur Suljovic 126.43
8 Dave Chisnall 121.81
9 Kim Huybrechts 117.41
10 Michael Smith 116.04
11 Simon Whitlock 110.99
12 Cristo Reyes 109.32
13 Vincent van der Voort 106.69
14 Mervyn King 102.72
15 Darren Webster 102.11
16 Joe Cullen 102.01
17 Daryl Gurney 101.44
18 Ian White 98.18
19 Benito van de Pas 97.24
20 Robbie Green 96.55
21 Ricky Evans 96.39
22 Rob Cross 96.36
23 Jelle Klaasen 94.77
24 James Wade 91.58
25 Gerwyn Price 90.41
26 Kyle Anderson 87.97
27 Steve Beaton 87.67
28 Stephen Bunting 85.21
29 Alan Norris 81.97
30 Robert Thornton 80.61
31 Dimitri van den Bergh 77.87
32 Jonny Clayton 74.56
33 Chris Dobey 74.37
34 James Wilson 73.41
35 Terry Jenkins 73.29
36 Brendan Dolan 72.68
37 Mark Webster 68.42
38 John Henderson 67.95
39 Christian Kist 67.30
40 Steve West 65.80
41 Joe Murnan 62.47
42 Jermaine Wattimena 61.59
43 Jamie Lewis 61.09
44 Ronny Huybrechts 59.67
45 Max Hopp 58.15
46 Rowby John Rodriguez 49.73
47 Justin Pipe 48.86
48 Kevin Painter 48.54
49 Josh Payne 47.98
50 Jamie Caven 23.13
51 Andrew Gilding 13.51

Sunday, 25 June 2017

Quick Austria roundup

Very fast as I need to be up in the morning to fund my beer bill:

Best player performance: Giving this to Joe Cullen. van Gerwen today was possibly the best we've seen, but Cullen's game was absolutely on point, and a semi-final slotting in more or less everything within fifteen darts, getting plenty of twelves and ending well north of 105 against Huybrechts is a great weekend given the talent on show.

Best single match performance: While Viljanen against Wright might be an obvious shout for this, I'm going to Michael van Gerwen in the semi final against Reyes. Three legs in twelve darts or better, another two in fifteen, the only leg he lost he was on 40 after twelve darts, it's really, really hard to do much better than that. Reyes against Gurney is worth a mention, King and Bain have also had solid games throughout the weekend.

Worst player performance: Stephen Bunting getting seeded to this and then not winning a leg against Chris Dobey, who while he played some good stuff this weekend, hasn't exactly been in form, has to be the winner.

Worst single match performance: Rob Cross, while getting everything on the other end of the scale, needs this against Klaasen, while Jelle winning wouldn't be out of the ordinary, doing it 6-0 while averaging south of 95 and only getting half your legs in fifteen darts is certainly a huge surprise. He did at least grind out a win against Andy Jenkins otherwise he might be swapped with Bunting in the previous category. Cullen's semi final was very disappointing, averaging sub 70 in losing legs and only getting a couple of the legs he did through Smith missed doubles isn't the best.

Ended up dropping just under a quarter of a unit for this event, I'm fine with all the bets I made, people underperforming and running into players on top form happens and is factored in to what I'm looking at.

Current adjusted top 20:

1 Michael van Gerwen
2 Peter Wright
3 Gary Anderson
4 Dave Chisnall
5 Mensur Suljovic (UP 1)
6 James Wade (DOWN 1)
7 Raymond van Barneveld
8 Michael Smith (UP 2)
9 Jelle Klaasen
10 Adrian Lewis (DOWN 2)
11 Daryl Gurney (UP 1)
12 Simon Whitlock (UP 1)
13 Ian White (DOWN 2)
14 Kim Huybrechts
15 Benito van de Pas
16 Alan Norris (UP 2)
17 Gerwyn Price
18 Phil Taylor (DOWN 2)
19 Joe Cullen
20 Mervyn King (NEW)

Austria quarter finals

Well those bets were unfortunate, can't help but feel that Bain let that one slip, holding well enough to 3-2 up then lets Schindler win the rest in six visits, the critical one being on his throw - the twelve darter, while nice, was just to hold which loses a fair chunk of the effect. Cullen was just lights out and Huybrechts did well just to keep it that close.

Quarter finals are up in less than two hours:

Michael van Gerwen/Martin Schindler - Schindler took a couple of legs in the World Cup against MvG, but still lost, this is a longer race and the odds makers have van Gerwen at 1/25, I've got him winning before a deciding leg over 95% of the time, with Schindler doing the same less than 1% of the time - Schindler at this stage has over a 50 winning leg sample which is big enough.

Daryl Gurney/Cristo Reyes - Big opportunity for either of these, neither of which will think this is just a final, Gurney is priced up around a 60/40 favourite. This seems too much, they've played very, very similarly, and on historical data I have this going the distance over one in four games, with Reyes taking a slight bit more of everything else. I think there's enough edge here to play, but I'll go small - 0.25u Reyes 11/8

Kim Viljanen/Joe Cullen - Cullen's a 3-1 favourite, this looks to be very much down the middle of what I have from all stats - if Cullen plays like he did against Huybrechts I really don't see Viljanen being able to cope, who was able to ease past Dobey finishing only two legs in under fifteen darts, a big drop from the performance against Peter Wright.

Michael Smith/Mervyn King - Smith's installed as about a 65/35 favourite, ignoring Stan James' rogue line which offers an arb but Stan James paying out on it is really unlikely, I'll ignore it, and I have this as closer - King's up at 32% before 5-5 with Smith at 42%, so a fair chunk should go all the way and winning the throw could be key, but King's simply played better this weekend - all legs under fifteen in round two, including a twelve, then four from six in fifteen in round three, compared to Smith's four from six in fifteen (incorporating one twelve) in round two and only two out of six in under fifteen darts against Klaasen - Klaasen let Smith hold throw in seven visits twice and seemed out of sorts. King's taken out the home favourite and Smith is no harder than Suljovic, so I'll go for the best price that we're likely to get paid on - 0.25u King 15/8

No chance of bets before the semis/finals, write up should follow this evening.

Saturday, 24 June 2017

Austria last 16

Was only able to get one bet up for yesterday, but at least it worked - I suppose the big thing is that results have really opened up the tournament - van Gerwen looks as close as a lock as you can get to reach the semis, while the corresponding quarter is all seeds, meanwhile on the other side Peter Wright's elimination opens things up primarily for Mensur Suljovic, who had one of the standout performances of today, but for a bunch of other players - there's nothing to say that Viljanen can't beat Chris Dobey and reach the final session on this form, while Huybrechts, Cullen, Klaasen, Smith and King are all players who are capable of reaching a final. Let's go through the bracket:

Michael van Gerwen/Vincent van der Meer - Stupid odds obviously, van Gerwen didn't look on top form against Kallinger, but didn't need to be, performing at the sort of level that van der Meer has been this weekend, won't be touching this but it's hard to see how van Gerwen doesn't kick things up and advance easily.

Jamie Bain/Martin Schindler - Bookies have this close to evens, as Schindler had easily the best performance of his short career in beating Ian White with fifteen darters for fun. Bain I mentioned yesterday, and my stats, while both are very limited, suggest that Bain should be a substantial favourite. This looks a great spot - 0.5u Bain 5/6

Benito van de Pas/Daryl Gurney - The bookies look to have this absolutely bang on - they have Gurney as the slightest of favourites in a flip, and so do I. Gurney's probably been the more consistent of recent while Benito's form has been real patchy, Gurney looked a touch better in round 2, I wouldn't disagree with you if you wanted to bet Gurney but I don't think there's enough edge.

Simon Whitlock/Cristo Reyes - Whitlock's listed as having a really small edge, no more than around 55/45, Reyes played a bit better in the legs he won today but lost a lot more, my stats say that Whitlock should be a small favourite, so will leave alone.

Kim Viljanen/Chris Dobey - Huge game for Dobey, who's already done enough this weekend to massively improve his Matchplay chances, and he's fallen into a great position to do even better. The stats of the two on won legs is extremely close - Viljanen actually having a tiny 1% edge to win in regulation, but Kim has quite a small sample and Dobey leads by 8 points on losing average. Dobey's somewhere in the 62-65% favourite range on the market, I'll leave it alone.

Kim Huybrechts/Joe Cullen - I think this should be a bet for Huybrechts. The market has it as him having not even a 60/40 edge, which I think he easily has - while Kim's weakness is his inconsistency, his average on losing legs is within Cullen's to 0.02 per visit. When he's winning legs he's blowing Cullen out of the water. Let's punt - 0.5u Huybrechts 3/4

Jelle Klaasen/Michael Smith - Smith is a small favourite after seeing off Chris Quantock who didn't show, despite Klaasen beating Rob Cross 6-0. Smith did a bit better on raw stats today, looks better than Jelle on historical stats, but not by a large enough amount where I want to gamble. Should be a great watch.

Mensur Suljovic/Mervyn King - Mensur's two twelve darters backed up with a couple of fifteens was the best performance of the day as far as I'm concerned and will have the home crowd behind him against King, who swatted aside Zoran Lerchbacher in great style, every won leg in fifteen or less, finishing with a twelve. Mensur's a bit shorter than a 2/1 favourite and seems to be peaking in form, but I think there's potentially very small value on King - if it wasn't being played in Austria. It is, so I'll say the line is fine.

Austria day 2, one quick bet

Don't have a lot of time to look too in depth regarding the betting for this one, and scanned yesterday's and didn't like much. There is one line I do like though - 0.25u Bain 11/4 vs Norris - Bain's statistics before today were twelve out of fifteen won legs in fifteen darts or less - yesterday he held with fifteen, broke with fifteen, held with fifteen, missed three at double to break in fifteen, held in fifteen, broke in fifteen then held in eighteen. Of course, he's inconsistent and averages low 80's in the legs he loses, but there's little to suggest that Norris is playing well enough for this not to be a value bet, even if Bain is on a bad leg he may well get shots.

Sunday, 18 June 2017

Players Championship 13/14 aftermath

These events got finished today, as well as the qualifier for Leverkusen, so let's get right into it:

Performance of the weekend - A few contenders here, but I think it has to go to Gary Anderson for a win and a final, regardless of how highly ranked you are, that's some feat. Contenders included Rob Cross, with his two semi final performances pushing him up into my live top 35, Robert Thornton and Daryl Gurney had solid weekends, Vincent van der Voort was solid, Richard North was really close to winning this with a quarter final, last sixteen and qualification for Leverkusen, Richie Corner also deserves a mention for two board finals, pushing him close to the live top 80.

Best tournament performance - Step up Steve Beaton, winning a first title in a long time, including wins over Anderson, Cross, Chisnall and whitewashes of Shepherd and Dennant. Shepherd and de Zwaan's quarter final runs should be mentioned in dispatches, along with Ian White making another final.

Best single match performance - Nothing really stood out in the Euro qualifier, and nothing seemed amazing today, so let's look at Saturday - Harry Robinson (who I assumed was some upcoming kid, not someone who played the worlds twenty years ago, oops) with two 6-0 wins to open up including over Steve West seems like a good shout, and I can't see anything that really gets too close. In a weekend where it seems the older guys brought it, this seems appropriate.

Worst weekend long performance - A few bad performances from highly ranked players - Wright, as the top seed in both, only raked in £2500, but falling to van der Voort and Cross, on current form, isn't really that bad, Klaasen lost to Meeuwisse and Newell after beating Brian Woods, which seems hard to beat, then Benito van de Pas lost both first round games to Steve Hine and Richie Corner, so there's that. Benito it is.

Worst single tournament performance - Wade losing round 1 to Wattimena isn't really that much of a shock, so let's revert to Jelle Klaasen going down in the opening round to Yordi Meeuwisse.

Current adjusted top 20 - King would have been back up in the top 20, but Thornton outplayed him enough this weekend so he holds on for now:

1 Michael van Gerwen
2 Peter Wright
3 Gary Anderson
4 Dave Chisnall
5 James Wade
6 Mensur Suljovic
7 Raymond van Barneveld
8 Adrian Lewis
9 Jelle Klaasen
10 Michael Smith
11 Ian White (UP 3)
12 Daryl Gurney (UP 3)
13 Simon Whitlock (DOWN 2)
14 Kim Huybrechts (DOWN 1)
15 Benito van de Pas (DOWN 3)
16 Phil Taylor
17 Gerwyn Price (UP 1)
18 Alan Norris (DOWN 1)
19 Joe Cullen
20 Robert Thornton

Wednesday, 14 June 2017

Challenge Tour

While Hamburg was going on last weekend, we had the penultimate weekend of Challenge Tour matches, notably Mark Dudbridge won one and finalled another to open up over an £800 lead in second place, with Wayne Jones still leading the way in the race for a tour card. Matt Edgar won another from seemingly nowhere, it's not unexpected given what we know of him (he did after all make the Players Championship Finals last year) but his form this year, when he's been playing, has been iffy, while Kevin McDine and Warrick Scheffer grabbed the other two events, climbing to sixth and tenth respectively, while Luke Humphries kept in touch with a £1500 weekend. Will be interesting to see what happens on the last week, which isn't until September.

The main point of this post is re: Lisa Ashton, who's played three of the four weekends (I think the fourth clashed with a ranking BDO event), and didn't do too badly at all, making a quarter final and picking up £550. There was a suggestion that the BDO should use one of its wild card slots for the Grand Slam on Ashton on account of being back to back world champion, with Durrant having two of the automatic spots from being both the world champion and World Master. I'm not so sure.

While I don't track the women's events, it was pretty easy to look up Ashton's results in the two most recent ranking events (the BDO site doesn't keep news older than that, so if there were stats for the World Masters, I couldn't find them). She's won 30 legs and lost 13, what are her numbers like?

Out of the legs lost, she's averaging 83, which is in the same ballpark as Kevin Painter, James Richardson, Devon Petersen and Mark McGeeney, so not too shabby. Bear in mind that nobody in my whole database even averages 98 on this stat.

In terms of twelve darters, she did this twice, so 6.66%, which again isn't sloppy. There's a possibility of sample size issues, but this is a better number than Alan Norris, James Wilson, Brendan Dolan and Mark Webster. However, it becomes a bit unstuck when you look at other stats. Another eight of those legs were in fifteen darts, which makes fifteen darts or fewer weigh in at 33.33%, i.e. one in three. This is a similar number again to McGeeney, but of those with any sort of sample, the only ones who are really much worse are BDO players - the only PDC player with any sort of sample that's this poor is Martin Schindler, who's down below 25%.

It doesn't get better looking at eighteen dart legs - this is only 70% overall. There's a few players from the PDC down this sort of level - Jamie Caven, Devon Petersen and Andrew Gilding are less than three points higher, Andy Hamilton's basically the same, but there is nobody with a sample size as large as Ashton's that is below 70%.

So how would she actually do in the Slam? Let's recall the selection - it's 16 players from winning or finalling PDC events, 8 players from a PDC qualifier and then 8 players from the BDO, of which she would be one. Let's say she gets the easiest draw she can from the automatic qualifiers, which given the selection methods, we'll call James Wade and Mark Webster, and that she also draws someone who's down on the cusp of the top 64 in the PDC who's binked the qualifier. We need someone with a sample, let's go with James Richardson. We'll mix it up a touch and say that it's actually played under Premier League rules rather than a race to five, only so I don't need to tweak a spreadsheet, and we play all 12 legs so we can say a most likely result without worrying about stopping at 7 legs:

vs Wade: 8.53% win, 13.89% draw, 77.57% loss, most likely result 8-4 Wade
vs Webster: 14.29% win, 18.08% draw, 67.64% loss, most likely result 7-5 Webster
vs Richardson: 14.61% win, 18.13% draw, 67.26% loss, most likely result 7-5 Richardson

Should she get a bad draw and end up in van Gerwen's group: 0.63% win, 2.44% draw, 96.93% loss, most likely result 9-3 van Gerwen.